Russia and the Iranian nuclear program : replay or breakthrough?

"March 2012."

Includes bibliographical references (p. 53-72).

Introduction -- Tehran research reactor talks do more damage -- Crunch point : Resolution 1929 -- Coup de grace : the S-300 -- Debate over sanctions -- Ties bad but manageable -- The engagement imperative -- Taking stock and peering ahead -- Evolving assessment of the Iranian nuclear threat -- Central Asia and Caucasus : eternal worries -- Middle East : regional calculations -- The ever-present American angle -- Reacting to the November IAEA report -- Will Putin change policy?

"Despite protests across Russia sparked by last December's fraud-filled Duma (parliament) elections, Vladimir Putin is preparing to return to the presidency this May. Will Putin replay his 2004-2008 approach to Iran, during which Russia negotiated the S-300 air defense system contract with Tehran? Or will he continue Russia's breakthrough in finding common ground with the United States on Iran seen under President Dmitriy Medvedev, who tore up the S-300 contract? While coordinating more closely with Washington on Iran during the Medvedev administration, Moscow did not and has not closed the door to engagement with Tehran. In 2010, Russia voted for new, enhanced sanctions against Iran at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Nevertheless, Moscow and Tehran have remained engaged diplomatically, and their relations have stabilized and begun to recover from their winter 2010-2011 low point. At the same time, Russia continues to insist that Iran comply with its commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and cooperate fully with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors. However, Russia is wary of pushing so hard on compliance lest Iran entirely abandon its treaty obligations and walk out of the NPT. Moscow's decision to toughen its approach to Iran on the nuclear issue is likely to remain the basis of Russian policy in the period ahead, so long as the U.S.-Russia "reset" does not totally collapse, especially if Iran does not move toward greater cooperation with the IAEA. Russia's looming domestic and external challenges will strengthen the inclination to continue some variant of reset, even if through Putin's clenched teeth."-- P. 1

Also available online in PDF format from National Defense University Press web site. Adobe Acrobat Reader required.